Oil & Gas - Regional - Latin America set for oil supply surge despite falling Argentine output

By Michael Place?/?Business News Americas

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Latin America's oil supply is expected to expand by 130,000b/d in 2013, the second highest growth rate among non-OPEC regions, a new report reveals.

The continent's oil stocks will reach 4.84Mb/d on the back of robust production in Brazil and Colombia, according to the latest OPEC oil market data.

The quarter-by-quarter supply prediction for Latin America is 4.76Mb/d, 4.78Mb/d, 4.89Mb/d and 4.95Mb/d respectively.

ARGENTINA

Latin America's overall figure represents a downward revision of 10,000b/d on the previous estimate due to forecasts of falling output in Argentina to 700,000b/d from 710,000b/d.

"The minor decline is due to the projected biodiesel growth offsetting most of the declines in mature producing areas," the report said.

OPEC said the dip in Argentine production could be tempered by the start of shale exploration programs and changes to export tax laws designed to increase investment.

COLOMBIA

The country's supply is tipped to jump by 50,000b/d to average 1.01Mb/d in 2013 due largely to the La Cira-Infantas, Quifa and Rubiales developments.

"The expected increase in capex in 2013 supports the forecast supply growth, as the country reached the 1Mb/d output mark by the end of 2012," OPEC said.

BRAZIL

Production in Latin America's biggest country is expected to average 2.72Mb/d in 2013, an increase of 100,000b/d on the previous year.

The increase coincides with the new production wells at Aruan?, Baleia Azul, Sapinhoa and Papa Terra fields.

The Santos basin's Sapinhoa field, operated by Brazil's federal energy major Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) is expected to reach a peak output flow of 120,000b/d in the first half of 2014.

"Furthermore, an increase in biofuel production is anticipated in 2013. However, the risk to the forecast is expected to be high on weather, shutdown and delay issues, as in 2012.

MEXICO

The country's oil supply is expected to fall by 70,0000b/d to average 2.86Mb/d in 2013.

OPEC cites a "significant lack of new developments" as the main reason for the negative forecast.

This is despite expected production increases at the Yaxche, Chuhuc, Tsimis and Xux fields as well as the expected auction of six blocks in the Chicontepec basin.

"An output decline is still forecast for 2013, despite an expected increase in capex," the report said.

VENEZUELA

Latin America oil demand is set to grow 2.4% to 6.41Mb/d in 2013, "pushed by transport fuel demand in Venezuela."

Total world oil demand is expected to rise 0.85% to 89.6Mb/d, an increase of 760,000b/d on 2012.

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BusinessNewsAmericas-TopStoriesEN/~3/54V36SyCCO8/latin-america-set-for-2013-oil-supply-surge-despite-falling-argentine-output

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